What I love about almost every bet, is that there is a winner and a loser.
You have a 50% chance of finding a profitable bet.
But, you want to do better than that if you are betting every day – 50% just won’t cut it.
And for that, you have to go a bit deeper than picking your favorite teams to win every week. I’m talking about looking at the matchups, hot streaks and the stats.
When it’s all said and done, the last thing you want to check is the most important part – the odds.
It’s All About the Odds
That’s because it doesn’t matter if you are 100% certain a team will win, even though nothing is 100% certain, the odds it pays out may not even make it worth it.
If you have to risk $100 just to win a buck, that’s not a trade worth taking.
Your money can get a better return in a savings account.
When you are betting on a team, you want a payout around 100%. Some will be more, and some will be less. But when you start getting below a 50% payout for risking 100% of your money, a few bad bets can almost wipe you out.
Here’s the thing. The odds can work against you in other ways as well. To tempt you into making a bet you really shouldn’t have.
Like an underdog that’s paying out 500%. When there’s huge odds like this, it’s tempting to begin to see a way the underdog can win. But the chances of it happening are extremely small. It’s why the books take bets like that to begin with.
Do your research first. Find the games and the matchups you like, choose your own spread, and then take a look at the odds and see if they line up in your favor.
Poor Research Leads to Poor Bets
While the odds may be the most important for placing a bet, if you have poor research your going to have poor bets.
Look, you can’t let your favorites creep into your bets. You can’t ignore hot streaks and think they are destined to end just because. Likewise, just because a team hasn’t won yet, doesn’t mean they will tonight.
These are all bias that impact betting decisions and there’s plenty more.
The way to avoid the biases that lead to poor bets, diligence in the research is key.
Know the matchups inside and out. Know what to expect tonight, who’s starting, who’s sitting, streaks on the line, grudges that could come up and more.
Even then, it’s not guaranteed you will win your bet.
But, if you lose, you at least know why. Maybe you underestimated the passing attack of one team, like I did last night with the Dolphins.
I knew they were getting in the groove with a passing attack, I just had no idea it would start off with record numbers last night.
That caught me off guard. And I lost a bet because of it. That’s okay. Now we can reevaluate the defense of the Jaguars and power offense of the Dolphins next week.
And that is the kind of insights you need. You can’t just chalk it up to a poor bet. Understand why the bet goes south so you don’t make that mistake again.
That’s all for now.
If you have any other games you want our insights on, just send us an email to ryan@dailysportsbets.com.
And keep the conversation going. Tweet us at @theonlydsb to let us who you are taking tonight.
To profitable bets,
Ryan
CEO, Daily Sports Bets
