Ok, I’ll bite.
I saw the thread trending on twitter, who’s starting week one for the big QB battles in the NFL.
I’ll break down how it’s all going to go today, but don’t forget. At the end of our Rundowns, we have a great betting opportunity.
Today, it’s on the unthinkable – preseason football.
I say all the time to never bet on these meaningless games, so we’ll see if I eat my words.
But I have a great bet that I don’t want to pass up tonight.
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Let’s start with week one QBs…
My Take on Week 1 QB Drama
- Denver Broncos – Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock
- Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence or Gardner Minshew
- San Francisco 49ers – Trey Lance or Jimmy Garapollo
- New Orleans Saints – Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston
- Chicago Bears – Andy Dalton or Justin Fields
- New England Patriots – Cam Newton or Mac Jones
Ok, I added one from the twitter feed, tonight’s Jacksonville battle. Maybe it is Trevor Lawrence’s show, but Meyer hasn’t confirmed it yet. So until it is confirmed, the mustache has a chance to make a return.
Each one will come back to the million dollar question, who gives you the best chance to win this year.
I have no doubt that all the challengers will be starting QBs at some point this year. They will get their turn.
But in week one, the safety bet has some appeal to teams that have a lot around them, such as Jacksonville.
I know everyone wants Lawrence to be the starter, and he should, but he is one of the few that needs to show some talent in preseason so they can have the confidence listing him as the clear number one.
If they roll with Minshew for a while, I’d only give it a few weeks before Lawrence is tossed in. It’s likely Trevor Lawrence getting the nod week one.
The Bridgewater and Lock are probably the two most compelling cases to be a starter. Teddy is the veteran now, but Lock got to work his magic last year. If Teddy can keep his preseason stats rolling, like his 9/11 and one TD over the weekend, he likely should be the week one starter.
Over in San Fran, it looks like Jimmy G. is feeling the heat. He went just 3/6 over the weekend, with a pick. Trey got some good looks going for 8/14, over 100 yards and two TDs. He still threw a pick, but if you are going to go with more upside and the growth, you have to make the switch to Trey Lance for week one and see what he has.
For New Orleans, I think you already have a good understanding of these two. Taysom Hill has been in the league for 4 years now backing up Drew Brees. But when he steps in, you see his style. Playmaker, like to run and take hits. As a starter, you’d have to worry about his durability if he is in on every snap holding the ball longer.
On the other hand, Jameis is always going to make careless plays. He will make big plays, but then throw one of the worst you have seen to turn a game around.
So who do you go with…
I believe they go with Jameis in week 1 and alternating with Hill like they did under Brees. And if Jameis struggles, like we have seen in Tampa, they’ll pull him quickly and let Hill take over.
Meanwhile, Andy Dalton has already said it is his time in Chicago. That will be one statement I’m sure he wants back. Just by the eye test, you can see Fields is a special athlete and going to be a talented quarterback.
Fans are already booing Dalton wanting Justin in.
Just to keep fans in the seats and also giving you a best chance to win, it’s Justin Fields time and let Andy Dalton ride the bench for a bit.
New England just got interesting. I would say that there is no doubt Mac Jones is the starter by the end of the year, but we aren’t talking about then. We are talking about week one.
And I think New England wants to give Cam Newton the chance to be a starter week one, but with the “misunderstanding” about Covid tests this week, it opens up the door for Mac Jones to get a full week in with the team in terms of reps and then come out in the next preseason game and show up.
My only concern, is his knee. I saw him get up slow on a slide last week. Just didn’t look strong after that. He is going to be a great pocket passer, and that’s what Belichick likes. But if he is injured it would hurt his chances to be a starter week one.
I’ll stick with Mac being the starter for now, and without an injury, he should be there week one.
“Pick of the Day” NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars vs New Orleans Saints
I think it’s just because football is back, I couldn’t resist not placing a bet on them.
But, preseason games are meaningless, so this could backfire quickly.
I’m looking at the QB battles going on and the depth on the rosters. And because of that, a prop bet I’ll make tonight is the Saints -3.5 at halftime.
The second half could go either way. It’s a mess as third stringers take over and ride out the game. It’s those first couple of quarters that we want to watch, as the Saints battle between Hill and Winston heats up.
On the other side, Lawrence and Minshew, I just don’t see them on the same level right now.
It’s also mostly Lawrence’s show, and that may discourage Minshew a bit and let Trevor relax. They could put on a good showing, but I still like the Hill and Winston combo to outscore them.
Fanduel is paying out +100 for picking the Saints -3.5 at halftime. That means a $100 bet will have the chance to payout $100 or a 100% profit. If you are looking for an opportunity to win $100, you’ll need to bet $100 on this game.
For us to win, we need the New Orleans Saints to lead by four points or more at halftime. If they are up three points or less, or losing, we will lose the bet.
That’s all for today.
You can tweet us to let us know who you are betting on at @theonlydsb or send us an email to ryan@dailysportsbets.com.
I’ll give you my two-cents for free if you post comments on Twitter. That means you get my insights without paying. What are you waiting for!
To profitable bets,
Ryan
CEO, Daily Sports Bets
