The Louisville Cardinals meet the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
Louisville is looking to prove a tough schedule held them back this year, while the Golden Gophers want the upset. I’ll explain what I see happening with this game and how to play it in a moment.
First, let’s talk about the Islanders. We had them winning the matchup with the Boston Bruins and they failed to show up. The Bruins dominated and we lost that bet. We had won three in a row before that one, so we’ll look to get back on track with the West Virginia bet going on right now – need them to win by more than five points.
Now, let’s talk about our opportunity with the Louisville vs Minnesota matchup.
Does Louisville’s Strength of Schedule Even Matter?
The answer to that is a resounding yes, the strength of schedule does matter. And it matters more than just losing to top teams in the nation – those losses can have a mental and physical toll on a team.
Like the historic comeback by the Duke Blue Devils down by 23 points in the second half.
Louisville was flat out exhausted. They had played a home game against UNC, then away at VT and FSU, before coming back home to face Duke. All four of those opponents were a top 25 team in the country at the time they played them.
If you dont think that stretch of games plays a part in their approach and level of play, you don’t know basketball. It can be tiring playing against teams the caliber of Duke and the depth of UNC.
The Louisville Cardinals played 12 teams that were ranked in the top 25 when they played. They won just four of those, with an impressive win against UNC earlier in the season.
Five of their 13 total losses came from teams that are a one or two seed in the NCAA tournamentand they notched two wins against those teams, going 2-7 against the best teams in the country.
They know they can play with the best of the best and that confidence will help them cruise past the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Stats Point to a Louisville Win
Their records are almost identical, but after that, Louisville has the upper hand stat wise.
Louisville averages 74.5 points per game, compared to 70.8 for Minnesota. Opponent points per game also goes to Louisville, holding teams to an average score of 67.8 compared to 69.2.
The books are showing Louisville as a five point favorite. That’s a spread I like. I see Louisville cruising to a win in this game, possibly by double digits. On the low end, maybe a seven point game, holding above the five point spread.
A bet on Louisville to win by more than five points is paying out a 90.91% profit, or -110 odds. That means a $110 bet is needed to profit $100. For every $100 you bet, the profit stands at $90.91.
To profitable bets,
Ryan
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