The Virginia Cavaliers face the Texas Tech Red Raiders in one of the most anticipated sporting events of the year – the NCAA National Championship game.
The culmination of March Madness peaks with a potential upset in the final game.
Some of the luster is lost if we have two one-seeds facing off, but any one who isn’t a UVA fan will be rooting for the upset, and the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
However, I don’t want to pick a winner in this game. And with the spread at just 1.5 points, that’s basically what you are doing. I think it will be a close game, but winning by one point will be unlikely.
Texas Tech just beat Michigan State with a ten point margin.
UVA is historically a defense driven team, holding teams to just 55 points all season. And the over/under for the final game of the season is just 118. This is the lowest over/under in 20 years.
Over/Under in NCAA Championships
The lowest recorded over/under was in 2006, UCLA vs the Florida Gators. The over/under however, was at 128, not 118. That’s an incredible ten points below the previous record.
And in that 2006 matchup, they went over the over/under, finishing with 130 combined points.
I know UVA is a defensive powerhouse, and Texas Tech will struggle to rack up points, but staying under 118 will be tough.
That’s a 60 to 58 point game. Both Virginia and Texas Tech average more than 75 points per game, and have held teams on average to a combined low of 114 points.
In other words, the book makers are expecting these teams to both dominate on defense in the NCAA Championship game, even though the two are sparring with the best of the best in college basketball.
I’m taking the over on the over/under of 118 if you haven’t guessed yet. It pays out -110, or 90.91%. A $110 bet is needed to profit $100.
To profitable bets,
Ryan
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