Today I’m breaking down the Atlanta Falcons over/under for the 2021 season.
With Matt Ryan returning at QB, we are still looking at a team running on the old guard in an ever changing NFL landscape. This could benefit, as a roster of veterans will help give them balance, but it doesnt necesarily mean more wins.
In rounds one and two for the draft, they added some great defensive players to the mix, but will it be enough to propel them to a better season.
The sports books have the Falcons pinned at a 7.5 wins for the season.
Let’s run through our own analysis, week-by-week, to see which way to bet the Atlanta Falcons over/under.
Atlanta Falcons Over/Under
Week 1 – Atlanta vs Seattle
A big matchup opening week in Atlanta as the Seattle Seahawks come to town. The Falcons finished last year at 7-9 as old Mattie Ice failed to stir up much in the win column for the team. He still put up nice numbers. But the Seattle Seahawks will look to add another winning season in the books, and to do that they’ll have to be able to beat teams like Atlanta, especially this early in the season. Atlanta will be 0-1 after week one.
Week 2 – Atlanta at Dallas
Zekiel Elliot and Dak Prescott will welcome the Atlanta Falcons at home in week two. With the Cowboys, you really don’t know what you’ll get. They could go beast mode and cruise past Atlanta, or look sleepy and let Atlanta steal this one. Since it’s really on Dallas’s shoulders and a home game for them, I’m taking the Cowboys to show up and grab the win. Atlanta falls to 0-2 for the year, not a good start.
Week 3 – Atlanta vs Chicago
Atlanta is back home for week three as the Chicago Bears make their way down for the matchup. While the Bears are sticking with young Trubisky, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Foles take over at some point. But not likely by week three. This one is a chance for Atlanta to get one in the win column, and I think they come through, moving to 1-2 on the season.
Week 4 – Atlanta at Green Bay
Another mathcup with an NFC North opponent, but this one is away from home. Rodgers, who is one of the miracle men still slinging the football, is always a threat to win. But being in Green Bay and with a struggline Atlanta team, I’m expecting the Packers to make light work of the Atlanta “D.” I have Atlanta falling to 1-3 for the year.
Week 5 – Atlanta vs Carolina
While the Carolina Panthers are moving on from Cam Newton, and putting in Teddy Bridgewater, this is not necessary a rebuild year for them. Bridgewater showed he could with New Orleans, and I think paired with speedy McCaffrey, they come into division rival Atlanta and grab the win. Atlanta continues to struggle falling to 1-4.
Week 6 – Atlanta at Minnesota
The Atlanta Falcons are on the road again, this time in Minnesota. Clearly iIhave the Falcons taking a step back in 2021. After a losing season in 2020, they haven’t made the moves that would help them overcome these games. The Vikings are going to roll at home and grab an easy “W.” Record for Atlanta falls to 1-5.
Week 7 – Atlanta vs Detroit
Atlanta finishes their NFC North games with a matchup with the Detroit Lions at home. The 3-12-1 team from a year ago, is set to struggle for another year. While both teams are struggling, it will make for a good matchup. It’s one that Atlanta can win at, and I see them coming out on top at home. Improving their record to 2-5.
Week 8 – Atlanta at Carolina
Carolina was set to win the first meeting between the two teams, but this one is on their home field. Carolina could be wobbling by this point, may not have the confidence they had earlier in the year, but since it’s a home game, I’m still taking them over the Falcons. Down to 2-6 halfway through the season.
Week 9 – Atlanta vs Denver
Atlanta’s first game against the AFC is a rather easy one. While Denver has some pieces to make some flashes in 2021, they will largely be trying to figure it out and get their QB comfortable. It’s going to be close, but I’ll take Atlanta, feeling desperate at home, to come away with a win – 3-6.
Week 11 – Atlanta at New Orleans
After a bye on week 10, a rested Atlanta team has one of their biggest games of the seson – division rival New Orleans Saints. The top team in the NFC South last season will likely be on top this year too. Brady and the Bucs wished they could take it, but not likely. With the Saints at home, this is going to be an easy win over a struggling Atlanta team. 3-7 for the Falcons it is.
Week 12 – Atlanta vs Las Vegas
Home again, and the playoffs all but out of reach, the Atlanta Falcons will be looking to top the Las Vegas Raiders. After adding some speedy WR in the draft, the Raiders are looking to have an explosive offense in 2021. They were an even matched team based on wins and losses compared to the Falcons last season, but I see the Raiders improving, while the Falcons continue to struggle. The Raiders walk away with a close one. Atlanta falls to 3-8.
Week 13 – Atlanta vs New Orleans
Two weeks after their first meeting, New Orleans travels to Atlanta as they look to sweep the series. Atlanta, with the season practically over, will be no match for a top New Orleans team rolling in. They’ll complete the sweep of the Falcons and send Atlanta to 3-9.
Week 14 – Atlanta at Los Angeles
Atlanta heads to Los Angeles to face the Chargers in week 14. The playoffs are out of reach, and Atlanta is left playing just for pride as they focus on next year. Sitting at 3-9, the desperation on the road against an up-and-down Chargers team, gives them the opportunity to steal one on the road. Atlanta will improve to 4-9.
Week 15 – Atlanta vs Tampa Bay
Brady and the Bucs bring the fight to Atlanta. Coming off a big win, and trying to salvage the rest of their season, this one sets up to be a close game. Even though Brady is expected to bring the magic to Tampa, he is past his prime. This won’t be the old Patriots dynasty down south. Atlanta has a real chance at another upset, and I have them taking the win at home, improving their system to 5-9.
Week 16 – Atlanta at Kansas City
The Chiefs are coming off a historic Super Bowl victory with a young team set to build the next dynasty in the league. They will be another high powered offense to deal with in 2021, and no match for Atlanta. The Falcons will only stand a chance here if the Kansas City Chiefs have secured a first round bye at this point in the season. If they haven’t, the Atlanta takes another loss falling to 5-10 for the year.
Week 17 – Atlanta at Tamp Bay
After stealing week 15 against Brady and the Bucs, Tom is going to be a work of art at home. The players around him will be better, and will do enough to win their final game of the year, likely putting the Bucs in the playoffs, maybe at a wild card spot. But the season for Atlanta ends at 5-11.
A clear disappointment for Atlanta, but this looks like it will be a season to forget. Tough matchups throughout the year, and up-and-coming divisional opponents for the NFC South, make this a year that sparks change in Atlanta.
Missing the playoffs is one thing, but a five or six win season is an utter disgrace.
There’s always teams like this, that’s going to be bottom of the barrel, but it hasn’t been the Falcons for decades.
The over/under on wins for the Atlanta Falcons is 7.5, so the sports books have them winning a couple more games. I’m not splitting hairs here, but with my five-win season prediction, I’m comfortable taking the under as the Falcons disappoint fans in 2021.
Join the conversation on Twitter, @theonlydsb, and let me know what you think about my analysis. All comments are welcome, especially if you have a different take.
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To profitable bets,
Ryan
CEO, Daily Sports Bets
