On Halloween weekend we’re betting against two teams heading in the wrong direction: a Colts roster being sold off and a Northwestern team whose winning streak looks better than its opponents. We also have a new section this week tracking which players are getting touchdown chances.
Thursday’s Panthers-Packers game is already final, so everything here kicks off Saturday or later. Week 8 has four teams on bye (San Francisco, New York Giants, Houston, New Orleans). The biggest injury story was Lamar Jackson’s ankle. He practiced fully all week, and Ravens coach Jesse Minter says, “We do think we will have Lamar” for Buffalo.
Two places stand out. Jacksonville hosts a Colts team that Fox Sports’ Will Hill describes as “clearly in rebuilding mode” after a week of trading away talent. And on Saturday afternoon in Eugene, a 4-3 Oregon team is favored over No. 20 Northwestern, and the computer model agrees with the oddsmakers.
Below: two featured plays, four player props, the new Opportunity & Touchdown Value board and the rest of the slate.
🏈 FRIDAY LOCK · NFL
Jaguars -9.5 vs. Colts
THE PLAY
Jacksonville -9.5 · Sun 1:00 PM ET · Total 46.5
THE LINE
Opened JAX -7.5, now -9.5 to -10 · ML JAX -500 (Fox/bet365)
WHY
The line has moved toward Jacksonville all week, and the reasons are clear. Indianapolis spent the week trading away players, and Will Hill’s pick for this game is the Colts’ team total under 17.5. CBS Sports projects Jaguars 33, Colts 20, which covers this number. Jacksonville’s quarterback is protecting the ball too: SI Betting notes that Trevor Lawrence has the lowest bad-throw rate (10.8%) of any NFL quarterback. A stable home team against a roster being taken apart is a double-digit spot.
🏈 SECOND LOCK · CFB
Oregon -3.5 vs. #20 Northwestern
THE PLAY
Oregon -3.5 · Eugene · Sat 3:30 PM ET (Peacock) · Total 47.5
THE LINE
ORE -3.5 · SportsLine model: Oregon 30-21
WHY
On the surface it looks like the wrong side: 4-3 Oregon fired its offensive coordinator after a 21-10 loss at Illinois, while Northwestern is 6-1 and has won four straight. But CBS Sports points out who that streak came against: Ball State, Michigan State, Rutgers and Penn State, three of which have a combined one Big Ten win. In Northwestern’s only true road game against a good opponent, it lost to Indiana by a touchdown. SportsLine’s model projects Oregon 30-21 and has the Ducks covering 62% of the time. A short number at Autzen is worth taking.
🎯 THE PROP GRID
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NFL · SUN 4:25PM · NE @ MIA Malik Willis OVER 33.5 rush yds Will Hill points out that Willis has cleared 34.5 in four of six games, and the line has since dropped a yard. -113 at Caesars. |
NFL · SUN 1PM · ARI @ DAL Javonte Williams OVER 76.5 rush yds Arizona allows more than 126 rushing yards per game (Fox Sports), and Williams leads the NFL with 14 carries inside the 5. -112 at DraftKings. |
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NFL · SUN 4:25PM · NE @ MIA Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 51.5 rush yds He has played 60%+ of snaps four weeks in a row, and Miami ranks 28th in opponent rush success rate (SI Betting). The line has risen from 47.5 to 51.5, so don’t chase it higher. -114 at FanDuel. |
NFL · MON 8:15PM · CHI @ SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 97.5 rec yds Chicago has allowed nine catches of 40+ yards, two more than any other defense, plus 21 completions of 20+ (SI Betting). -112 at DraftKings. |
📊 NFL OPPORTUNITY & TOUCHDOWN VALUE
Who is getting scoring chances, who’s converting them, and where the price is actually worth it.
How to read the board: xTD is ESPN’s expected-touchdown figure, the number of rushing and receiving TDs a league-average player would have scored on the same carries and targets. Short (shortfall) = xTD minus actual TDs. Conv (conversion) = actual TDs ÷ xTD, so a number below 1.00 means fewer scores than those opportunities usually produce. In5 = carries inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. EZ Tgt = end-zone targets.
SUNDAY 1:00 PM ET WINDOW
| PLAYER | OPP | KICK (ET) | STATUS | TD | xTD | SHORT | CONV | IN5 | EZ TGT | RECENT USAGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, RB) · LIKELY SCORER | vs MIN | Sun 1:00 | Not listed | 9 | 9.1 | 0.1 | 0.99 | 11 | 1 | Not verified | — |
| Javonte Williams (DAL, RB) · LIKELY SCORER | vs ARI | Sun 1:00 | Not listed | 9 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 1.00 | 14 | 0 | Not verified | — |
| Michael Wilson (ARI, WR) · UNDER-CONVERSION | @ DAL | Sun 1:00 | Ribs: limited Wed–Thu, questionable in odds feed | 1 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 0.20 | 0 | 9 | Practicing in a non-contact jersey | Mixed |
| Trey McBride (ARI, TE) · UNDER-CONVERSION | @ DAL | Sun 1:00 | Not listed | 4 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.71 | 0 | 5 | W7: 13 targets, 10 catches, 111 yds, TD; 9+ targets every game | Supports |
| Ashton Jeanty (LV, RB) · UNDER-CONVERSION | @ NYJ | Sun 1:00 | Not listed | 4 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.60 | 7 | 1 | W7: 72% of snaps but 8 carries (47% share), 8 targets | Mixed |
SUNDAY 4:05 / 4:25 PM ET WINDOW
| PLAYER | OPP | KICK (ET) | STATUS | TD | xTD | SHORT | CONV | IN5 | EZ TGT | RECENT USAGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Gordon II (MIA, RB) · UNDER-CONVERSION + PRICE | vs NE | Sun 4:25 | Not listed | 4 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.73 | 10 | 0 | W7: 83% of snaps, 25 carries; 68% of red-zone carries over the last 4 weeks | Supports |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN, WR) · UNDER-CONVERSION | vs KC | Sun 4:25 | Not listed | 1 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.32 | 0 | 6 | Not verified | Unverified |
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
| PLAYER | OPP | KICK (ET) | STATUS | TD | xTD | SHORT | CONV | IN5 | EZ TGT | RECENT USAGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D’Andre Swift (CHI, RB) · LIKELY SCORER | @ SEA | Mon 8:15 | Not listed | 7 | 8.4 | 1.4 | 0.83 | 12 | 0 | W7: 86% of snaps, 22 carries with Kyle Monangai out | Supports |
Sunday Night Football (Eagles at Commanders): no player qualified for the board this week. No international game this week. Thursday’s Panthers-Packers game is already played and isn’t included.
A touchdown shortfall is a screening signal, not proof that a player is “due” or that a bet is profitable. Expected touchdowns describe past opportunities. They are not a next-game scoring probability.
THE SELECTIONS
BET Ollie Gordon II, Anytime TD (Sun 4:25 vs NE)
+130 FanDuel at 12:04 PM ET Fri · +131 Caesars at 9:46 AM ET · Minimum: +115 or better · Confidence: Medium
Evidence: Gordon has 10 carries inside the 5 and has converted fewer of his opportunities than expected (4 TDs on 5.5 xTD). His role is clear and growing: he played 83% of snaps with 25 carries in Week 7 (StatChasers) and took 68% of Miami’s red-zone carries over the last four weeks (RotoWire). At plus money, that workload looks like the best price on the board.
Main risk: Miami is a 6.5- to 7-point underdog, and a lopsided score could cut down the running game. Jaylen Wright can also take short-yardage carries when he’s healthy.
WATCH Michael Wilson, Anytime TD (Sun 1:00 at DAL)
+185 FanDuel at 1:44 PM ET Fri · +180 DraftKings · Minimum: +160 or better, and only if he’s active · Confidence: Low
Evidence: Wilson has the biggest shortfall on the board: 1 TD on 4.9 xTD, with 9 end-zone targets. Arizona-Dallas has the highest total on the slate (54.5), and NBC Sports describes Dallas as one of the league’s worst pass defenses.
Main risk: His ribs: he was limited Wednesday and Thursday in a non-contact jersey (Cardinals injury report). McBride also soaks up red-zone looks. If he’s active and the price holds, this upgrades to a bet.
WATCH D’Andre Swift, Anytime TD (Mon 8:15 at SEA)
-115 DraftKings at 10:18 AM ET Fri · -115 FanDuel · Minimum: -120 or better · Confidence: Low
Evidence: Swift has 12 carries inside the 5, and he played 86% of snaps in Week 7 while Kyle Monangai was out (StatChasers).
Main risk: If Monangai returns, Swift’s workload shrinks. Check Monday’s inactives before betting.
PASS Jahmyr Gibbs, Anytime TD (Sun 1:00 vs MIN)
-235 BetMGM (best) at 3:01 PM ET Fri · Minimum: n/a · Confidence: n/a
Evidence: Gibbs is a likely scorer (9 TDs on 9.1 xTD, 11 carries inside the 5), but he’s converting right on schedule. At -235 the price already reflects that, so there’s no value.
Main risk: Laying a big price for a touchdown leaves no margin for error.
Sources: TD, xTD, In5 and EZ targets from the ESPN xTD leaderboard (Mike Clay, published Oct 27, 2026, covering games through Week 7). Rushing and receiving TDs only, all from the same table. Odds via OpticOdds as of Fri Oct 30, 3:05 PM ET. Injury status from the OpticOdds injury feed and team reports as of Fri Oct 30 afternoon. Final designations and inactives may change, so check before kickoff. Recent usage is shown only where it could be verified. No fair-odds model is used here, so no win probabilities or edges are listed.
The Weekend Angle
Saturday night, No. 2 Ohio State visits USC (Buckeyes -6.5, 7:30 PM, NBC) without quarterback Julian Sayin. True freshman Luke Fahey makes his first start, and the line has dropped off the key number of 7. SportsLine’s Casale takes USC +6.5. We’re staying away. Georgia is an 11.5- to 12.5-point favorite over Florida (3:30 PM, ABC), and Covers leans the Bulldogs.
In the NFL, Ravens at Bills (Buffalo -3, total 54.5) gets more interesting with Lamar Jackson back. Hill notes the last three meetings were all decided by a field goal or less and takes Baltimore +3. Sunday night, Eagles at Commanders (Washington -5.5, total 40.5): Philadelphia has lost five straight and is badly banged up. Monday night, Bears at Seahawks sits at Seattle -3 with a total of 46.5.
⚠️ RESPONSIBLE GAMING: Sports betting involves risk. Lines move, so check your book before you bet. Only wager what you can afford to lose. 21+ where legal. If gambling is affecting your life, call 1-800-GAMBLER for confidential help.
Cash the tickets.
— Ryan / DSB
